The economic plan IS working, said chancellor George Osborne today as he delivered the 2013 Autumn Statement.
The chancellor said that growth predictions had improved – to 1.4% in 2013 and to 2.4% in 2014 – but that the government was determined not to repeat mistakes of the past and threaten the stability of the recovery.
Mr Osborne spoke repeatedly of "difficult decisions", arguing that austerity had to continue in order “to repair the roof while the sun is shining”.
The fall in growth had been more severe than expected during the depths of the financial crisis, he revealed. Trade and export levels remain low as Eurozone growth and global trade levels have continued to struggle.
Public Finances
In a triumphant tone, the chancellor insisted that the Government had gained control over spending levels, but conceded that there were more cuts to be made.
As a result of improved conditions, borrowing will be £9 billion less than expected this year. On the current trend, there will no longer be a need to borrow in five years’ time, Mr Osborne said.
Crucially, however, the improvement was described as “cyclical”, suggesting that debt will not simply disappear with the return to growth, and will continue to rise for the foreseeable future.
Consequently, departmental budgets will be reduced by a further £3 billion, though schools, health spending will be protected. Local government spending will also be excluded to allow for a council tax freeze next year.
A cap in overall welfare spending was announced, while the bank levy will also rise slightly to raise £2.7 billion per year.
Non-UK residents are to be charged capital gains tax on housing transactions from April 2015, while the chancellor also announced measures to deal with tax avoidance and evasion.
One of the more controversial measures was an announcement to a rise in the pension age to 68 from the mid-2030s, which is vital to maintain a sustainable public pension system, the chancellor said.
Giveaways
Among the new measures to be announced – although few were unexpected – was the introduction of free school meals for infant school children and the married couple’s tax allowance. (See a summary of the measures here.)
The 2p rise in fuel duty due in 2014 will be scrapped, while rail fares will only rise in line with inflation from January (3.1%) rather than the expected 4.1%.
The chancellor announced that 30,000 more student places would be made available next year, and that the cap on student places would be abolished. This would be funded by selling off the existing student loans book.
There was no help for savers, however, with no mention of the tax-free ISA allowance or the long-campaigned move to allow child trust funds to be converted into junior ISAs.
Businesses, Investment and Productivity
Much of the chancellor’s statement was focused upon measures for businesses and improving productivity.
Business rates will rise by 2% next April, he said, rather than the expected 3.2%, while every business with a rateable value of up to £50,000 will receive a £1,000 cut to their rates for the next two years.
The chancellor also acknowledged that the high street was still struggling as more people choose to buy over the internet.
He announced measures to support small firms taking up new premises, including a “re-occupation relief” that would halve rates for businesses taking up occupancy in vacated or derelict property.
Businesses have also been encouraged to take on young workers, with employers’ National Insurance contributions scrapped for employees under the age of 21.
20,000 additional apprenticeships are to be funded over the next two years, while young people signing on without qualifications will be made to undertake training or risk losing their benefits altogether.
The chancellor confirmed that the Funding for Lending Scheme would be focussed upon small business lending from January 2014, as the Government seeks to boost the availability of credit to support business investment.
However, the Help to Buy scheme will remain as a stimulus to first-time buyers, with challenger banks Virgin and Aldermore set to join the scheme later this month.
The chancellor identified the supply of housing as a ‘weakness’, announcing £1 billion in loans to unlock large housing developments and regenerate run-down housing estates.
He also confirmed the Government’s commitment to invest in alternative energy sources such as shale gas and offshore wind power, as many continue to worry about the cost of energy bills.
Reaction
Shadow chancellor Ed Balls attacked the fall in living standards, contesting that consumers were now £1,600 a year worse off since 2010.
He said the recovery was regional, with most people not feeling any sign of recovery at all.
Young people were being forced to take on part-time work, he said, as there were not enough full-time posts available. He called for a compulsory bank bonus tax to fund more jobs for young people.
Business leaders were more optimistic about the statement, however.
Helen Dickinson, Director General of the British Retail Consortium, said the smaller rise in business rates would help firms raise their investment levels in the coming year.
"The chancellor has recognised that businesses are suffering and is right to listen to retailers' concerns on business rates,” she said.
“With fuel duty frozen, £1,000 rebate on business rates and a subsidy on employing young people, there are measures worth thousands to small businesses,” added Alexander Jackman, the Head of Policy at the Forum of Private Business.
But fundamental concerns remain at the lack of measures taken to address wholesale energy prices, while savers are also neglected as consumer spending continues to prop up the economy.
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